Banana Hut

Journeys and rambles in Japan.

10.10.2006

Some reasons to maybe not be so worried after all.

Among other things, even if Pyongyang’s touted “nuclear test” turns out to be the real deal, and Russia is saying that it is, it’s unlikely that Kim Jong-Il has the capability to fit his nukes on a Taepodong or the like.


Prototype nuclear weapons in the past have been physically very large and North Korea's is likely to be the same, James Acton, of the Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (Vertic) in London, says.
"If North Korea has just tested a first generation device then it is currently likely to be too big to fit on a missile," he said. (BBC)


Moreover, while fears of an Asian conventional arms race are legitimate, it’s important to keep in mind that for historical reasons Japan is one of the most vocal opponents of nuclear weapons, and nuclear technology in general, and is unlikely to acquire a Bomb of its own. If it chose to, Japan could no doubt develop the technology in a matter of days, but the domestic and international opposition to such a measure is broad-based, and very, very robust.


The nuclear topic has been sacrosanct in Japan for decades and the Japanese public remains vehemently opposed to becoming a nuclear power.
While Japan's hawkish new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has won popularity with his tough stance towards Pyongyang and calls for a more assertive foreign policy, persuading Japanese people that they need nuclear weapons would be a tough task.
Equally, Mr Abe will be aware of legal constraints - such as the NPT - that prevent Japan having nuclear weapons, and also of the considerable international opposition, not least from main ally the US, to such a move. (BBC)


From the same source, we have people claiming that a nuclear DPRK may actually be the key to stabilizing the region. As crazy as that sounds, an internationally-relevant Pyongyang may be the key to finally injecting some maturity into Washington’s policies. It goes without saying that nobody in East Asia is interested in a nuclear arms race.


"Anything that causes regional instability is not in China's interests," says Dr Pinkston. Beijing needs stability so that it can focus on its economic development, he says.
Any economic dip could impact badly on a society already coping with rapid change and severe income disparities.
Popular unrest is one of the Chinese political elite's greatest concerns and so maintaining a stable society is the priority, he says.
Countries around the region will more likely put considerable effort into pursing a diplomatic course rather than moving rapidly to arm themselves further.
A North Korean nuclear test could, in fact, be the foundation for better regional dialogue and a more unified effort to put pressure on Pyongyang, says Nicholas Szechenyi of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. (BBC)


The linchpin will be Pyongyang, and if Pyongyang behaves well it all hangs on how GWB reacts. So far, Kim’s been biding his time, and Washington seems committed to a multilateral approach through the Security Council. I think the most threatening the White House has gotten is to mention, of all things, economic sanctions and setting up a naval blockade of sorts.

And thankfully, despite the poignant timing by Pyongyang, Ban Ki-Moon is still poised to replace Kofi Annan as Secretary General of the UN. Kofi, I think, has been there over-long.


With the support of most of the Security Council and of all of the permanent members, the UN General Assembly can appoint Ban to take over after current Secretary General Kofi Annan's mandate is over at the end of the year.
In Ban, the Security Council, which has the ultimate say in choosing the new head, gets a balanced and neutral choice. His appointment would satisfy both the calls for an Asian secretary general and the United States, which considers South Korea to be a staunch ally.
"The Americans would certainly support the South Korean candidacy because that's sort of a validation of South Korea, which has been under the American orbit since the 1950s," Dr. Arne Kislenko, who teaches history and international relations at Ryerson University and University of Toronto, told CBC.ca. (CBC)


And in case you needed to be told, the entire goddamn world has condemned the test, including the Security Council. Some of the more amusing condemnations come from India, Pakistan, and Venezuela. Except Tehran, of course, which makes some good points about Western hypocrisy, but somewhat trips up its high horse when it buys its plutonium COD from the DPRK.

Then again, the Epoch Times reminds us just how close and worrying the ties are between NK, China, and fascist, Islamist Iran, Syria, and Sudan.

And Kim Myong-chol, unofficial spokesman for the DPRK, lets us know just how crazy "the greatest iron-willed, brilliant commander" Kim Jong-Il really is.

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3 Comments:

At 1:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The concern is not so much that the North could put a nuclear warhead on a missle. The short term concern is that North Korea has never manufactured a weapon that it hasn't sold to other countries. Since the economy collapsed several years ago, the party elite is now dependent on money it earns from weapons sales to sustain a privileged way of life. Thus Iran and others, including terrorist groups, may find a North Korean shortcut to obtaining nuclear weapons.

In the longer term, North Korea is now one of the leading producers of ballistic missiles. Sooner or later they will refine their technology so that they can arm their missiles with nukes.

So, there is still good reason to "be afraid, be very afraid."

 
At 11:45 AM, Blogger Matt said...

Absolutely true. It's interesting to see the international community dance around the possibility of a full naval blockade.

There are plenty of other reasons to be afraid as well. China sells vast quantities of conventional arms to flash-points like Sudan in exchange for oil, and has been known in the past to sell nuclear tech to Iran. And worst of all, I think America, Israel and France still have the largest arms industries in the world.

I just think it's a bit silly that, given the extensive involvement in the arms market by wholly legitimate and orthodox states, people start jumping up and down the minute the DPRK says it has its hands on a bomb that was smaller than the one dropped on Hiroshima, and less reliable toboot.

 
At 11:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good points.

I think my first comment might require an update, based on something I learned from this morning's paper. North Korea acquired its nuclear weapons technology from the A.Q. Khan network in Pakistan in the 1990's. During the same period, Khan brokered a deal under which Pakistan purchased medium range ballistic missiles from N. Korea. Pakistan has mounted its nuclear warheads on these same missiles, which it now uses to menace India.

Given the above, it is probably a bit naive for people to be saying that N. Korea is years away from having a delivery system for its nukes.

You are right that it is hypocritical for arms-trading, nuclear weapons-owning states to preach about the dangers arising when other countries acquire and sell advanced weapons.

 

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